Ellis County

Ellis County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.0593, which translates to a 3.85% cap rate at the current median price of $372,221. That puts it squarely in appreciation-country territory rather than cash-flow territory, and the numbers confirm it without ambiguity. At a 6.85% financing rate with 20% down, the modeled monthly mortgage of $1,951 runs $112 above the $1,839 median rent before a single dollar of operating expense is counted. Add $644 in estimated monthly expenses and the cash-flow projection lands at negative $756 per month, a -10.6% cash-on-cash return. The appreciation score of 42 out of 100 is the softer side of this story: home prices are down 1.65% year over year, so the market is not currently delivering on either front. An investor needs to be eyes-open walking in here.

The profile fits a buyer who is underwriting for long-term appreciation tied to DFW metro spillover, not one who needs a property to carry itself. The affordability index of 70 and median household income of $93,248 suggest a population that can sustain rents at current levels, but that does not fix the financing math. A cash-flow buyer running conventional leverage at today's rates will lose money on a median-priced asset here. A value-add operator could shift the math by acquiring below median, forcing rent through renovation, and reducing the gap between debt service and income, but the baseline deal does not pencil. An appreciation buyer betting on continued DFW exurban expansion has a thesis to work with, but that thesis needs home prices to recover and grow from a currently negative year-over-year position.

No economic anchor data was provided for Ellis County, so employer-specific demand drivers cannot be assessed from this dataset.

The tax and insurance carry deserves serious attention on any underwrite. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.80%, which the Tax Foundation classifies as high and which carries the honest caveat that actual county and township rates may differ from this state-level estimate, Ellis County taxes alone run an estimated $6,700 annually. Combined with $1,861 in estimated annual insurance, the monthly tax-and-insurance burden is $713. That single line item accounts for the majority of the $644 estimated monthly expense figure and is the primary reason a 3.85% cap rate fails to cover a 6.85% mortgage. Texas has no state income tax, which is a partial offset for investors who are counting after-tax returns, but the property tax rate is high enough that it needs its own line on every pro forma and should not be buried in a generic expense ratio.

The primary risk visible in this data is the current price softness. A -1.65% year-over-year decline is not a collapse, but it means an investor buying at median today is starting underwater on paper and depends on the appreciation thesis reversing before leverage compounds the cost. No vacancy, regulatory, or demographic risk data was provided, so those dimensions cannot be assessed here.

Hunt County is the most directly comparable neighbor in this dataset, with a median home price of $273,373 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0647 against Ellis County's 0.0593. That 54-basis-point gap in gross yield is meaningful at scale: at Hunt County's ratio, a $273,373 purchase generates roughly $1,474 per month in median rent versus $1,839 on a $372,221 Ellis County asset. The entry price is $99,000 lower, the yield is higher, and the overall score is functionally the same at 54 versus 55. An investor who is yield-focused and not specifically tied to the Ellis County submarket should look hard at Hunt County first. Ellis County makes more sense than Hunt when the buyer's thesis is specifically about DFW southern-corridor price appreciation, the target asset is priced well below median, or the investor has specific local knowledge of a submarket within Ellis where rents-to-price diverge materially from the county-wide figures.