Bexar County

Bexar County's headline numbers tell a clear story: a 6.4% gross rent-to-price ratio, a 4.16% cap rate, and a cash-flow score of 64 out of 100. Those figures place it on the better half of the cash-flow spectrum for a major Texas metro, but they do not make it a cash-flow market in any pure sense. At a $256,512 purchase price with 20% down and a 6.85% rate, the modeled monthly mortgage is $1,345 against a median rent of $1,369, leaving almost nothing before expenses. Once you layer in the $479 in estimated monthly operating costs, the model shows a $455 monthly deficit and a cash-on-cash return of negative 9.25%. The appreciation score of 37 reflects a year-over-year price decline of 2.6%, so you cannot count on near-term equity gains to paper over the carry losses either. This is a market that is neither a reliable cash-flow play nor a clear appreciation bet at current financing costs; the numbers put it in a transitional zone that demands careful underwriting.

The investor this market suits most is someone with a longer time horizon, tolerance for short-term negative cash flow, and the operational discipline to close that gap, either by acquiring below the median, forcing rent through value-add improvements, or waiting for rates to compress enough to refinance the debt service down. The affordability index of 73 and a median household income of $67,275 suggest the renter pool has real purchasing power relative to rents, which supports occupancy and limits the risk of sudden rent roll deterioration. A strict cash-flow buyer running leveraged deals at today's rates will find the math hard to justify. An appreciation buyer needs to reconcile the negative 2.6% price trend. The strongest case is for a patient value-add operator who can buy selectively below $256,000, improve the asset, and hold through a rate environment that is currently suppressing returns across the board.

Bexar County is home to San Antonio, the seventh-largest city in the United States by population, at just over 2 million residents. That scale produces a diversified local economy anchored by the military presence at Joint Base San Antonio, which encompasses Lackland, Randolph, and Fort Sam Houston and generates tens of thousands of jobs with recession-resistant characteristics. Healthcare is a second major pillar, centered on the South Texas Medical Center, one of the largest medical complexes in the country. The University of Texas at San Antonio adds a student and faculty population that sustains demand for rental housing near its campus. This combination, federal military payrolls, healthcare employment, and a large university, creates the kind of structural rental demand that cushions a buy-and-hold portfolio through economic cycles, even when price appreciation is flat or negative.

On carry costs, the tax and insurance burden deserves a hard look before you sign anything. Using the Tax Foundation 2024 state-average effective rate of 1.80%, the estimated annual property tax on a median-priced asset comes to $4,617, and annual insurance runs approximately $1,283, combining to $492 per month in tax and insurance alone. That figure is not a rounding error; it is the single largest expense line after debt service. At 1.80%, the state-average rate is high enough to deserve its own line on your underwrite, and the honest caveat is that this is a state-average estimate. Actual county and township rates in Bexar can differ, and you should pull the specific tax assessor data for any address you are seriously evaluating. Texas has no state income tax, but it offsets that with property tax rates that rank among the highest in the country, and Bexar County is not an exception to that pattern.

The primary risk here is concentration in a single major metro that is currently experiencing price softness. A negative 2.6% year-over-year price movement is not a collapse, but it does indicate that the pandemic-era appreciation has stalled and partially reversed, and a buyer who overpaid in 2021 or 2022 is underwater in a market where rents do not yet compensate for the financing costs. San Antonio's population scale reduces single-employer concentration risk, but the heavy reliance on federal defense spending means any significant restructuring of military installations would have an outsized local impact. Regulatory risk is not flagged by the available data, but Texas generally operates under a landlord-friendly legal framework relative to coastal markets.

Compared to its neighbors, Bexar is the clear choice if your thesis depends on liquidity, market depth, and rental demand. Duval County at a $75,098 median price looks attractive on paper, but that price point reflects a thin, rural market with limited exit options and a matching overall score of 55. Karnes, De Witt, and Uvalde counties all price between $193,000 and $213,000 and score 55 overall, below Bexar's 56, suggesting slightly worse risk-adjusted profiles despite lower entry prices. Victoria County, the most comparable neighbor with a median rent of $1,124 and a nearly identical rent-to-price ratio of 6.39%, scores 58 overall, marginally better than Bexar, and its lower price point could improve the cash-flow math at current rates. If you need the scale, tenant base, and institutional infrastructure of a two-million-person metro, Bexar is the only county in this peer set that provides it. If you are willing to accept illiquidity risk in exchange for a lower purchase price and potentially cleaner cash flow math, Victoria is the one neighbor worth running a parallel underwrite against.