Hamilton County

Hamilton County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 5.2%, which places it squarely in the middle of the cash-flow versus appreciation spectrum, leaning toward neither extreme. At a 3.38% cap rate, the unlevered return is thin, and the leveraged picture is worse: at a 6.85% mortgage rate on a $353,406 purchase with 20% down, the model produces a monthly cash flow of negative $856 and a cash-on-cash return of negative 12.64%. Median home prices are essentially flat, down 0.14% year over year, so appreciation is not bailing out the carry right now. This is not a market where the numbers work on a standard buy-and-hold with conventional financing today, and any underwrite that pretends otherwise is papering over a real yield gap.

Given those returns, Hamilton is not a market for a cash-flow buyer at current prices and rates unless the buyer can source off-market deals meaningfully below the $353,406 median, negotiate seller financing, or bring a larger down payment that shrinks the debt service. The appreciation buyer faces flat price growth and a 49 out of 100 appreciation score, which does not suggest a near-term catalyst at the county level. The investor profile most likely to find value here is a value-add operator: someone buying distressed or underrented assets below median, forcing equity through renovation, and refinancing or selling once the basis justifies the return. The affordability index of 53 suggests the market is moderately affordable relative to local incomes at a median of $69,069, which supports a renter pool but also caps how aggressively rents can be pushed without turnover risk.

The combined monthly tax and insurance burden on a median-priced asset runs $315, breaking down to roughly $209 in taxes and $106 in insurance based on the annual figures of $2,509 and $1,272 respectively. Tennessee's state-average effective property tax rate of 0.71% is flagged as normal, meaning it is neither a tailwind nor a penalty line item, but it still represents a real $209 per month that belongs on every pro forma. Bear in mind this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Hamilton County township-level rates can differ, so confirm the specific parcel's tax bill before closing. At 0.36% the insurance rate is modest and does not represent unusual exposure.

The population of 367,193 makes this a mid-sized market, large enough to have a functioning rental market with diverse tenant demand, but no economic anchor data was provided for this analysis, so the employment base and demand drivers behind that renter pool cannot be addressed here beyond what the income and affordability figures imply.

The specific risks the data supports are narrow but real. The overall score of 50 out of 100, a national percentile rank of 27, and a state rank of 61 out of 95 Tennessee counties collectively signal a below-average market by quantitative measure. Concentration risk exists if local employment is tied to a single sector, but no employer data is available to assess that. The affordability index of 53 is not a red flag on its own, but combined with flat prices and negative cash-on-cash returns, it suggests the market absorbed rate increases poorly and hasn't repriced fully to restore yield.

Comparing Hamilton to its neighbors, Robertson County stands out with a rent-to-price ratio of 5.53% versus Hamilton's 5.20% at a median home price of $366,187, only modestly above Hamilton's $353,406, and an overall score of 51. Robertson offers better yield per dollar deployed at a similar price point. Montgomery County presents a lower entry price at $318,518 and a ratio of 5.22%, nearly identical to Hamilton's. Rhea County has the lowest median at $261,404, but its ratio of 4.38% is the weakest in this peer group, meaning cheaper does not mean more efficient here. Maury and Rutherford both carry higher median prices, $395,565 and $412,432 respectively, with ratios below Hamilton's. The clearest case for choosing Hamilton over a neighbor is market liquidity and tenant depth: at 367,000 residents, Hamilton is almost certainly the most liquid exit market in this peer set, which matters to a value-add operator who plans to sell into a deeper buyer pool. If the primary goal is maximizing yield on day one, Robertson County's ratio is superior on the numbers provided.