Northampton County

Northampton County's headline numbers put it squarely in appreciation territory, with meaningful caveats for anyone underwriting on cash flow. The median home price sits at $363,989 against a median rent of $1,821, producing a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.0%. That is thin. The modeled cap rate comes in at 3.9%, and at a 6.85% financing rate with 20% down, the math produces a monthly cash flow of negative $724 and a cash-on-cash return of negative 10.38%. Those are not rounding errors you can fix with better management; they reflect a genuine structural mismatch between current prices and rents when you add leverage. The appreciation score of 75 out of 100 and year-over-year price growth of 2.47% tell a more constructive story, but that story is about equity accumulation over time, not month-one income.

This market suits a specific buyer profile: the patient, equity-focused investor who can cover negative carry from other income or reserves and is underwriting for long-term appreciation and principal paydown rather than immediate yield. Cash-flow buyers should look elsewhere; the 6.0% gross rent-to-price ratio leaves almost no room after debt service, taxes, insurance, and operating expenses. Value-add operators could close some of the gap if they can force rent above the $1,821 median on repositioned units, but the underlying cap rate environment means exit multiples are not punishing for sellers, so you are not buying distress. The affordability index of 64 and median household income of $82,201 suggest a tenant base that can support rents in the mid-to-upper range of the local market, which is a mild tailwind for occupancy quality if not for yield compression.

The taxInsurance carry deserves its own line on your underwrite. Pennsylvania's state-average effective property tax rate here is modeled at 1.54%, which the data flags as high, and the note is accurate: that figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024, and your actual county or township rate may differ, so verify at the parcel level before closing. At $363,989 purchase price, that rate produces $5,605 in annual property taxes. Combined with $837 in annual insurance, you are looking at $537 per month in tax and insurance alone before you touch mortgage principal, interest, or any operating expense. That $537 figure is already embedded in the modeled negative cash flow above, but investors accustomed to lower-tax states should internalize how much that number compresses net operating income. The 1.54% rate is not a dealbreaker, but it is not a number you can underwrite around without rent growth.

Relative to the neighboring counties in the dataset, Northampton presents a distinct trade-off. Monroe County is the most relevant comparison at a $304,344 median with a rent-to-price ratio of 7.33% versus Northampton's 6.0%, and Monroe carries the same overall score of 62. On raw yield math, Monroe wins for cash-flow-oriented buyers. Delaware County, at $353,606 median and a 5.75% rent-to-price ratio, scores 61 overall and offers even less yield than Northampton while pricing nearly as high, making it the weaker choice on both income and score. York County, at $297,755 median and a 5.16% rent-to-price ratio, scores 63 but actually delivers lower yield despite the lower price point. Cambria and Clearfield counties are a different category entirely, with medians under $132,000 and rent-to-price ratios in the 9.3% range for Cambria, but they represent small, economically distinct markets that do not compete with Northampton demographically.

The stability score of 50 out of 100 is worth flagging without overstating it. A score at the midpoint means the data does not identify this as a high-risk market, but it does not offer the demand predictability of a larger metro with multiple employment drivers. Northampton County sits in the Lehigh Valley, which provides some buffer from single-employer concentration, but the data does not include specific economic anchor detail, so no further inference is warranted there. Nationally, the county ranks 272nd out of 1,000 markets at the 64th percentile overall, which positions it as a slightly above-average market by composite score, not a top-tier cash-flow play and not a speculative appreciation bet, but a reasonable hold for a buyer whose primary return assumption is multi-year equity growth in a supply-constrained northeastern Pennsylvania submarket.