Morris County

Morris County scores 44 on cash flow and 81 on appreciation, and those two numbers tell you almost everything you need to know about where this market sits on the spectrum. The gross rent-to-price ratio is 0.495%, which translates to an annualized yield of 4.95% before any expenses. After financing at 6.85%, the model spits out a cap rate of 3.22% and a cash-on-cash return of negative 13.36%, with estimated monthly cash flow of negative $1,787 on a $697,930 purchase with 20% down. The $3,659 monthly mortgage payment alone exceeds the $2,879 median rent, which means there is no path to positive cash flow at market-rate financing without a substantially larger down payment or a purchase price well below median. Home price appreciation came in at 3.4% year-over-year, and the appreciation score of 81 out of 100 places Morris in the upper tier nationally on that dimension. This is an appreciation market, not an income market, and the numbers leave no ambiguity on that point.

The investor this market suits is someone buying for long-term equity accumulation, not current income. A cash-flow buyer underwriting at current rates will be writing a check every month, and the carry cost math does not improve materially even with a 30% down payment. An appreciation buyer with a long hold horizon, patient capital, and the balance sheet to absorb negative carry is the natural fit. The median household income of $130,808 and an affordability index of 50 suggest a tenant base with the earning power to sustain the $2,879 median rent, which does provide some protection against rent deterioration, but it does not fix the financing gap. A value-add operator hunting for forced appreciation through renovation could pencil a deal at a steep discount to the $697,930 median, but at that price point, distressed assets are sparse in a county with this income profile, and competition for them will be intense.

The property tax situation in Morris County deserves its own line on every underwrite. The state-average effective rate used here is 2.49%, yielding an estimated $17,378 in annual property taxes on a median-priced asset. Combined with estimated annual insurance of $1,466, the monthly tax and insurance load alone runs $1,570. That single line item represents 54.5% of the gross monthly rent. New Jersey's property tax burden is the highest in the country, and that 2.49% is the state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data; actual county and township rates in Morris can differ meaningfully, sometimes higher, sometimes lower, so pull the specific municipal rate before finalizing any underwrite. This is not a footnote; at this magnitude, property tax is the single largest variable cost in the model and can swing cash flow by several hundred dollars per month depending on where in the county the property sits.

Morris ranks 440 out of 1,000 counties nationally, placing it at the 42nd percentile overall, and 11th out of 21 New Jersey counties. Comparing it to its neighbors clarifies the trade-off precisely. Mercer County offers a 6.99% rent-to-price ratio on a $431,761 median price, and Ocean County runs 6.22% on a $527,692 median. Both score 58 overall versus Morris's 56, and both deliver meaningfully better current income math. Middlesex County at 5.38% and $567,497 also outperforms Morris on yield while scoring 58. Hunterdon and Somerset are closer peers, with ratios of 4.93% and 4.97% respectively, and similar overall scores of 55 and 53, though Somerset's $640,204 median sits below Morris's price point. If current cash flow is the objective, Mercer or Ocean County are the rational choices from this peer group. Morris makes sense over those neighbors only when the investment thesis is explicitly anchored to appreciation and tenant quality, or when specific sub-markets, school districts, or asset types within Morris justify a premium that a county-level median obscures.