Suffolk County

Suffolk County sits at the expensive end of the Boston metro, with a median home price of $768,792 and median rent of $3,379. The gross rent-to-price ratio comes out to 0.0527, which translates to a 3.43% cap rate on the model underwrite. That is well below the threshold most cash-flow investors require, and the numbers confirm it: at a 6.85% mortgage rate with 20% down, the monthly mortgage payment alone is $4,030, against rent of $3,379 and estimated expenses of $1,183, producing negative cash flow of $1,834 per month and a cash-on-cash return of -12.45%. Year-over-year home price appreciation sits at 0.71%, which is essentially flat in real terms. This is not a market where the math works from day one on a leveraged hold, and the affordability index of 16 out of 100 tells you that the tenant base is already stretched relative to the median household income of $87,669. Suffolk ranks 639th out of 1,000 counties nationally, landing in the 15th percentile, and 11th out of 14 Massachusetts counties surveyed. The numbers place it squarely on the appreciation end of the spectrum, but the appreciation engine is running slow right now.

The investor this market suits is not a cash-flow buyer. With a -12.45% cash-on-cash return, anyone underwriting to current-year income needs a different county. Suffolk makes more sense for an appreciation buyer with a long hold thesis, particularly one who can absorb carry costs from other income sources and is betting that a dense, supply-constrained urban market will outperform over a 7-to-10-year horizon. A value-add operator could find some play here if they can acquire below the $769K median, force appreciation through unit improvement, and push rents above the current $3,379 median, but the gap between gross rent and debt service is wide enough that even a meaningful rent bump does not flip this to positive cash flow at today's rates.

No economic anchors data was provided for Suffolk County, so employer-level analysis is omitted here.

Monthly property taxes and insurance together run approximately $955, using a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.23%, which the data flags as "normal." That $955 figure is already baked into the $1,183 estimated monthly expense total, so it is not an additional surprise, but it is worth isolating on your underwrite because it is a fixed cost that does not flex when rent is lost. The 1.23% rate is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual rates at the county or township level may differ, so pull the specific assessor data before you close. At 1.23%, the rate is not itself a red flag, but at a $769K basis the dollar amount is real: $9,456 per year in property tax alone, before insurance, maintenance, or management.

The core risk in Suffolk is structural: a 3.43% cap rate at a $769K entry price leaves almost no margin for vacancy, a rent concession, or a capital event. The affordability index of 16 signals that renters at the median income are already paying a high share of wages for housing, which caps organic rent growth and raises the risk of tenant turnover when rents push higher. Concentration risk is also worth noting, as Suffolk is essentially the city of Boston, and single-market urban assets carry regulatory exposure that suburban or multi-city portfolios do not. No vacancy or regulatory restriction data was provided here, but Boston's history of tenant protections is a factor investors should research independently before committing.

Compared to its neighbors, Suffolk actually carries the highest rent-to-price ratio of the group at 0.0527, which is counterintuitive given the price point. Middlesex County at $790,411 median and a 0.0439 rent-to-price ratio is a worse income profile at a higher price. Norfolk County at $744,669 and 0.0458 rent-to-price is closer but still lags Suffolk on income yield. Essex County at $698,257 and 0.0443 is cheaper to enter but does not compensate on rent. Bristol County is the outlier: $524,317 median price and a 0.0466 rent-to-price ratio, with an overall score of 49 versus Suffolk's 45. For an investor prioritizing the best combination of lower entry price, less negative carry, and a slightly higher composite score, Bristol County is the more logical choice. Suffolk makes sense over its neighbors only if you have a specific thesis about Boston urban appreciation or need the density of the rental demand pool that comes with a population of 785,443 in a geographically constrained market.