Warren County sits at a 0.055 gross rent-to-price ratio, which places it squarely in appreciation territory rather than cash-flow territory. At a $404,923 median home price against $1,853 median rent, the math is straightforward: a 20% down leveraged buy produces a cap rate of 3.57% and a cash-on-cash return of negative 11.83%, with estimated monthly cash flow of negative $918 at a 6.85% mortgage rate. That is not a rounding error or a bad deal found on the wrong street, it is the market. The 1.42% year-over-year home price appreciation is modest, not enough on its own to compensate for that carry, and the county's overall score of 58 out of 100 (49th national percentile) confirms this is a middle-of-the-road market without a standout angle on either side of the ledger.
The buyer this county suits is an appreciation-oriented investor with patience and outside income to carry a negative cash flow position, or an owner-occupant investor who values demographic stability over yield. The appreciation score of 64 is the highest individual score in the data set for this county, and a $103,128 median household income signals a tenant base with real purchasing power, which translates to lower credit risk and better lease renewal rates even if it doesn't close the rent gap at current prices. The affordability index of 71 also suggests this county is not priced out for the residents who live here, which supports occupancy. A pure cash-flow operator, however, should look elsewhere. With expenses estimated at $649 per month before the mortgage and a monthly tax-and-insurance burden alone of $604, the carrying cost structure leaves essentially no margin for positive returns at prevailing prices and rates.
On the tax and insurance front, the state-average effective property tax rate of 1.56% deserves its own line on your underwrite. At that rate, the implied annual tax bill on a $404,923 purchase is $6,317, or $526 per month in property taxes alone, before insurance adds another $78. The combined $604 monthly tax-and-insurance load is a meaningful drag in a market where gross rent is $1,853. That 1.56% figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Warren County or township-level rates may differ, so pull the auditor's current millage before you close. Ohio's property tax system can vary significantly at the township level, and Warren County's suburban positioning near Cincinnati means some parcels may carry additional levies.
No economic anchor data was provided for this county, so employer-level analysis is not included here.
The primary risk in Warren County is valuation sensitivity. A market priced for appreciation at a 3.57% cap rate has very little cushion if price growth stalls or reverses. The stability score of 50 is the weakest number in the county's profile, and a negative cash-on-cash return of nearly 12% means an investor is writing a check every month on the expectation of future price gains. If that gain does not materialize at a rate that exceeds carry costs, the investment thesis collapses. Population at 243,189 is reasonable for a suburban county, but the data does not support any claim about concentration in a single employer or regulatory environment, so those specific risks are not quantified here.
Against its neighbors, Warren's weakness is clear on the yield side. Franklin County (Columbus) shows a 0.061 rent-to-price ratio on a $288,459 median price; Licking County shows 0.060 on $327,794; Muskingum County shows a 0.064 ratio at just $202,550. All three neighbors produce materially better gross yields than Warren's 0.055, and both Franklin and Licking carry overall scores of 59 and 60, close enough to Warren's 58 that the yield advantage tips the scale toward them for a cash-flow or balanced buyer. Clermont County, the closest in character, comes in at 0.058 on $316,533 with a higher overall score of 64, making it arguably the better buy-and-hold option for an investor who still wants Cincinnati-area suburban exposure with somewhat less compression. Warren County earns the nod over neighbors only if an investor has high conviction in its specific price appreciation trajectory, is willing to absorb negative carry, and values the county's higher median income and affordability profile as a tenant quality story rather than a yield story.
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $303,692 | -$387/mo | 4.8% | -6.7% |
Median typical MLS deal | $404,923 | -$918/mo | 3.6% | -11.8% |
125% of median newer / premium | $506,154 | -$1,449/mo | 2.9% | -14.9% |
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Based on 5.49% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 1.4% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Price-to-income ratio of 3.9x. Lower ratios indicate more affordable markets.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Warren County in Ohio scores 58/100, ranking #383 of 1,000 US counties (top 51%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $918/month; the 5.49% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.
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