Bernalillo County

Bernalillo County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 5.04%, which translates to a cap rate of 3.27% on a standard underwrite. At a median home price of $347,857 and median rent of $1,460, the math is straightforward and unflattering for cash flow: after a 20% down payment, a 6.85% mortgage runs $1,824 a month, operating expenses add another $511, and the estimated monthly cash flow lands at negative $875. Cash-on-cash return comes out at -13.12%. Year-over-year home price appreciation of 0.91% does nothing to rescue that picture in the near term. By the numbers, Bernalillo sits squarely in appreciation-leaning territory, though even the appreciation score of 59 is modest, not exceptional. This is a market where the current rate environment bites hard and the rent level does not cover the carry.

The investor this market suits is not a cash-flow buyer at today's prices. A straight buy-and-hold at the $348K median, financed conventionally, produces deep negative monthly cash flow that requires either a very long hold horizon or a meaningful compression in interest rates to pencil out. A higher-equity buyer, someone putting 35-40% down to eliminate enough debt service, changes the monthly math materially and might push into slightly positive territory, though the cap rate of 3.27% sets a ceiling on that exercise regardless of leverage. The more credible thesis here is appreciation over a 7-10 year horizon in New Mexico's largest metro, paired with rent growth that a 674,000-person market can sustain better than smaller counties. Value-add operators who can force appreciation through renovation and push rents above the $1,460 median have a clearer path to returns than passive landlords buying at the median.

The county encompasses Albuquerque, New Mexico's economic and population center. A market of 674,692 people carries diversification that smaller New Mexico counties simply cannot offer, which matters for occupancy consistency even if the numbers on day one are negative. Median household income of $62,220 supports the existing rent level, though the affordability index of 46 out of 100 signals that renters at the median are already stretched. That tension between income and home prices is part of why the homeownership rate likely skews toward renting for a meaningful share of the population, which supports rental demand without necessarily supporting rent growth that outruns income.

The combined monthly tax and insurance burden on a $348K property runs approximately $319, using a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.80% and an insurance rate of 0.30%. The tax rate is flagged as normal, not a particular headwind, and at $232 per month in estimated taxes it is not the reason this market is cash-flow negative. The insurance component at roughly $87 per month is also benign. That said, the note that accompanies this estimate is worth taking seriously: 0.80% is a state-average figure from Tax Foundation 2024, and actual Bernalillo County or city-of-Albuquerque millage rates may differ. Pull the county assessor's data for any specific address before finalizing your underwrite. The bigger driver of negative cash flow here is the debt service, not the carry costs.

The primary risk in Bernalillo is concentration within New Mexico's economic hierarchy. Albuquerque is the state's anchor, but New Mexico overall ranks near the bottom nationally on income and economic output metrics. If state-level budget pressures affect public-sector employment or university enrollment, Bernalillo feels it disproportionately given its role as the state's administrative and educational hub. The affordability index of 46 is also a constraint on rent growth: pushing rents much above the current median runs into an income ceiling that $62,220 household income defines fairly clearly. There is no vacancy or crime data in this dataset to comment on further.

Compared to its neighbors, Bernalillo offers the least favorable rent-to-price ratio in the group. Dona Ana County comes in at 6.13% gross yield with a median home price of $285,598 and nearly identical median rent of $1,459, earning an overall score of 52 versus Bernalillo's 50. That 109-basis-point yield spread on a $62,000 cheaper asset makes Dona Ana the more immediate cash-flow alternative for an investor choosing within New Mexico. Grant County stretches the yield further to 7.02% at a $188,000 median, though smaller market size brings its own concentration and liquidity risks. Luna and Sierra Counties offer low prices but incomplete rent data makes a clean comparison impossible. An investor should choose Bernalillo over these neighbors specifically when the thesis is long-term metro appreciation, portfolio scale in a larger tenant pool, or access to value-add inventory in a city where renovation-driven rent bumps can clear the 5% gross yield hurdle that the median purchase cannot.