Pasco County

Pasco County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 7.21%, which places it on the cash-flow side of the Florida spectrum but not deep enough to produce positive leverage at today's financing costs. The model underwrite at a $331,106 purchase price, 20% down, and 6.85% interest generates a monthly mortgage of $1,736 against estimated rent of $1,989, and once expenses are layered in the estimated cash flow lands at negative $443 per month, producing a cash-on-cash return of -6.98%. The cap rate of 4.69% is the more useful number here: it tells you the asset yields less than the cost of debt, so every dollar of leverage works against you until either rents rise or rates fall. Home prices are down 4.1% year-over-year, so the appreciation story isn't carrying water either. The cash-flow score of 72 reflects the relatively favorable rent-to-price ratio compared to coastal Florida, but the appreciation score of 30 is the honest counterweight, and the overall score of 52 puts Pasco at the 32nd national percentile, ranking 20th out of 67 Florida counties.

The buyer best suited to Pasco right now is either a patient cash-flow operator who can wait out the rate environment or a value-add investor who can push rents above the county median through renovation or unit mix. At the current gross yield, a buyer paying cash would clear approximately 4.69% unlevered, which is thin but not irrational as a long-duration hold in a no-income-tax state. A pure appreciation buyer has little data support here: prices falling 4.1% year-over-year, an affordability index of 51, and a median household income of $63,187 against a median home price of $331,106 suggest limited organic price pressure from local buyers. The affordability constraint is real. A leveraged appreciation play requires a thesis that rates compress meaningfully, not just a hope.

The tax and insurance picture for Pasco deserves a line in your underwrite. Combined monthly tax and insurance runs approximately $430, which is already embedded in the $696 estimated expense figure. The state-average effective property tax rate used here is 0.89%, which the data flags as normal, so it's neither a tailwind nor a penalty compared to other Florida counties. The insurance rate of 0.67% of value annually, or roughly $185 per month, reflects Florida's elevated coastal and weather-risk pricing. Keep in mind these figures use state-average estimates and your actual county or township rate may differ, so pull the Pasco County property appraiser's roll before closing on any specific asset.

The main structural risk here is concentration in a single demand driver. Pasco is largely a Tampa metro spillover market. Population sits at 569,211 and has been growing, but the county lacks a large independent employment base, meaning rental demand is substantially tied to commuters priced out of Hillsborough. If Tampa's job market softens or if Hillsborough absorbs more workforce housing supply, Pasco absorption slows first. No vacancy or crime data is provided here, so those risks can't be quantified from this dataset, but the demographic dependency on Tampa-adjacent employment is a structural consideration worth stress-testing.

Among the five comparable Florida counties in the dataset, Pasco's 7.21% gross yield is the second-highest, trailing only Citrus County at 7.39%. Citrus is also cheaper at $269,826 median versus Pasco's $331,106, which means an investor prioritizing current yield per dollar deployed has a reasonable argument for Citrus. Duval County (Jacksonville) offers a lower yield at 6.56% and a $289,432 median, but Jacksonville's diversified economy and population scale provide demand stability that Pasco's Tampa-spillover profile doesn't match independently. Brevard County at 6.83% yield and $337,593 median is marginally more expensive than Pasco with a lower yield, so Pasco wins that head-to-head on cash-flow math. Alachua County at 6.78% yield is the university market, which brings its own tenant seasonality and regulatory dynamics. Choose Pasco over its neighbors when your thesis is a mid-tier Florida cash-flow hold at moderate entry price, you're comfortable with Tampa metro exposure, and you're not dependent on short-term appreciation to underwrite your exit.